主講人：朱懷平 加拿大約克大學(xué)教授
時(shí)間：2021年10月27日9：00
地點(diǎn)：騰訊會(huì)議 478 127 447
舉辦單位：數(shù)理學(xué)院
主講人介紹：朱懷平，加拿大約克大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)和統(tǒng)計(jì)系教授，約克大學(xué)應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)首席教授，并行計(jì)算與模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)室和疾病建模中心主任。長(zhǎng)期從事動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)分支理論及其應(yīng)用、希爾伯特第十六問(wèn)題、種群生態(tài)學(xué)與傳染病學(xué)的數(shù)學(xué)建模和應(yīng)用分析研究、氣候變化模擬和影響、以及蚊蟲(chóng)疾病的實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)和防控等研究工作。在數(shù)學(xué)及生物數(shù)學(xué)的國(guó)際頂級(jí)或高水平期刊上累計(jì)發(fā)表文章100多篇，在國(guó)際著名的微分方程雜志發(fā)表了單篇長(zhǎng)達(dá)112頁(yè)論文。多次組織舉辦了動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)分支理論以及應(yīng)用，生物數(shù)學(xué)，氣候變化以及影響等學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議，并先后在重要國(guó)際會(huì)議做特邀報(bào)告20余次。作為項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人獲得加拿大國(guó)家工程和自然科學(xué)基金會(huì) (NSERC)，國(guó)家創(chuàng)新基金 (CFI)，加拿大健康研究院（CIHR), 加拿大公共衛(wèi)生部(PHAC)，以及安大略省衛(wèi)生部、環(huán)境部、科技部等部委的資助。2007年曾獲安大略省青年科學(xué)研究獎(jiǎng)。
內(nèi)容介紹：Weather conditions, such as daily average temperature and precipitation, not only affect the abundance and the biting behavior of Culex mosquitoes but also determine the outbreak and spread of West Nile virus (WNV). Early warning capacity for alerting public health to emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases is critical for effective public health response. In this talk, I will present a recent study of integrating a statistical model for Culex mosquito abundance with a compartmental model for the transmission of WNV. In this study, we incorporated both temperature and precipitation into the models to reflect their impact on the abundance of vector mosquitoes, biting behavior, and transmission of the virus. The Culex mosquito trap counts from the mosquito surveillance program and the reported human cases of WNV are used to calibrate the model. I will show simulation results showing a satisfactory match with the data. The predictive models together with the weekly weather forecasting of temperature and precipitation allow us to predict the risk of WNV in the study area weekly. The simulations from the model suggest that variation in weather patterns can result in different endemic situations in the region, while the daily average temperature plays a more important role than precipitation in the transmission of WNV. If time permits, I will discuss the challenges of bifurcations and dynamics of models for the transmission of WNV.